Pollster Likely Underestimating the Youth Vote

If I'm inundating and annoying everyone with polling information, I apologize. Just tell me and I'll stop. My biggest weakness is that I'm a poll junkie. I can't get enough of reading polls and analyzing the crosstabs.

In that respect, here's something I came across:



This graphic shows the representation of voters aged 18-29 in the 2004 election and compares that to what current pollsters are using to represent that age bracket in their poll numbers. Though it is possible that 2008 turnout among 18-29 will be lower than the 17% from 2004, it is not very likely.

Only R2K/dKos and CBS are polling this age group at that rate. Gallup is including them at as low as 10% of their sample.

If the youth vote turns out to be between 18% and 22% as is projected and backed up by primary exit polls, the current polling numbers could vastly change in Obama's favor.